S. Philip Morgan "Characteristic Features of Modern American Fertility" (1996)

Main point: The author reviews some of the major trends in American fertility since 1960.

* higher order births (4+) are rare

* substantial proportion of all women will remain childless

* ages of women with low-parity births will vary - US has largest amount of teen pregnancy

* proportion of births to unmarried women will be substantial

* substantial non-marital childbearing is not a universal feature (Japan, S. Korea)

* racial and ethnic differences in fertility will be substantial

* contraception and abortion will be key proximate determinants of American fertility

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Typical theoretic explanations:

1. focus on long-term secular trends that accompany fertility transition

2. focus on cyclical factors that affect the transition (business cycles, cohort size)

3. focus on contested and indeterminate nature of social change

definitions

crude birth rate: births / 1000 population

total fertility rate: sum of age specific fertility rates

cohort fertility: number of children women bear in lifetime

parities: number of children

20th century historical patterns:

period driven (in calendar years when fertility increased, it did so for all ages) (Ryder)

total fertility rate increases and decreases were more rapid than crude birth rate changes

disengagement of timing and number effect in fertility - Ryder showed that timing has substantially more effect

baby boom: earlier age at first birth and at least two children

fertility has become concentrated by parities (number of births) not age

future US fertility will be determined by the occurrence and timing of lower order births

Analytic frameworks:

1. life course: assumes non-reversible time-limited sequence because children usually born singlely, pregnancy interval is thought of as repeatable sequences of events, what happens at time t can influence time t+1

2. proximate determinants; sequential biological processes can be influenced only through a small number of paths (Bongaarts) marriage, marital disruption, post-partum infecubdability, contraception, abortion

Timing of first births:

Early: teenage child bearing

While a substantial portion of earlier cohorts became parents before age 20, there has been no dramatic increase among recent cohorts

US has one of the highest teen child bearing rates - low contraceptive use

Proximate determinants of early child bearing: age at first intercourse/frequency of intercourse, contraceptive use, abortion

1990: 35% teen marriages in US end in abortion

On-time: women ages 20-29

Child bearing at these ages is sensitive to period economic changes

Key determinant of future fertility is proportion of women who remain childless

Delayed: 30-45

Explains post-1975 trends in birth probabilities as "catching up"

Views on the pace of subsequent child bearing:

1. sequential view: decision is made after birth of first child

2. parents' predetermined "master plan" selects number of children

- pace at which women have second children has slowed in last 40 years

- articles in the 1970s argued that younger ages at first childbirth are associated with more rapid subsequent childbearing; by late 1970s effect of age at first childbirth had disappeared

Non-marital fertility

- fertility of co-habitating couples is closer to single/non co-habitors than to married couples

- components of illegitimacy ratio: # women married, # women unmarried, birth rate married women, birth rate unmarried women

- 1963-1983 increases in illegitimacy ratio determined by first 3 components

Racial/Ethnic fertility differences

- controls on socioeconomic differences do not account for racial and ethnic differences

- modest convergence predicted for whites, hispanics and asians; but not for blacks and whites

- some of the racial difference attributable to age at first childbirth

Explanations for recent declines in US abortion rates:

1. unintended pregnancies have declined (but there is evidence against this)

2. changes in the age structure of childbearing (fewer teenage pregnancies) (but there is evidence against this)

3. access to abortion services declined

4. acceptance of abortion declined

Concludes by arguing that a theory of American fertility change requires a theory of family change and correspondingly a theory of social change.