Ron Lesthaeghe "A Century of Demographic and Cultural Change in Western Europe: An Exploration of Underlying Dimensions" (1983)

Main point: In this article, L. investigates the extent to which demographic transitions in Western Europe during two historical periods: 1860-1910 and end of WWII to 1970 in fertility and nuptiality can be viewed as manifestations of a cultural dimension that had already emerged during the period of demographic transition.

He maintains that a microeconomic cost-benefit paradigm of individual decision making is a necessary but not sufficient explanation of the forces behind these demographic changes. L. argues that changes in the demand function for children and in the individual choice behaviors resulting from it are also linked to the "progression of an individually oriented value system". In short preference structures rely on "ideational meaning systems." The individually oriented secular meaning system is linked not only to the most notable demographic changes of these two periods (notably later marriage, fewer children, more divorce) but also to the legitimation of cohabitation, childlessness and abortion.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1860-1910

first major demographic transition: control of marital fertility began at end 18th century

period marked by revolutions in 2 countries, France and US

younger generations breaking loose from Malthusian family formations

doubling of suicide rates 1875-1910

change occurred faster when the mode of production was no longer family-centered

"traditional" areas: marital fertility tended to lag decreases and suicide and divorce rates lower than avg.

"rural secularized areas": organized in class parties, emergence of interest group (over corporate) politics

* Social contract became abstract notion substituted by solidarity backed by interest groups

* Secular individualism: pursuit of personal goals devoid of references to a religious or philosophical construct

* Rationality of the individual reigned over group rationality

end of WWII - 1970

rapid fall of marital fertility 1963 onward initially thought to be change in fertility tempo

however this was an actual decline explained in terms of

* shifts in the demand for children function as well as

* decline in the relative incomes of younger generations

But L says this is only a partial explanation - other changes in the family (divorce, decline in remarriage, decline in first marriage rate, increase in suicide WWII-1965) indicate the appearance of a fundamental transition.

Lesthaghe uses factor analysis on data from Switzerland, Belgium and France to investigate whether there is an underlying dimension(s) which can characterize these demographic changes. He discovers 2 factors:

1. degree of secularization (historical dimension capturing marital fertility transition) and

2. contemporary levels of urbanization and industrialization (end of family mode of production)

which emerge when data concerning a variety of variables linked to the demographic transitions are reduced via factor analysis. L. investigates more recent data on the transition from first to more children in Belgium. His factors in this analysis resemble those of the previous analysis (secularization and proportions in agriculture) and add an additional factor which he attributes to regional differences. Interestingly, he finds that unemployment variables are of limited or no use in accounting for regional differences. This seems to negate the "crisis hypothesis" that fertility declines in response to economic recession.

L. concludes that historical shifts in demography (fertility and nuptuality) and contemporary changes in family formation and procreation should not be regarded as independent, but rather as "successive manifestations of a long-term shift in the Western ideational system". The underlying dimension of this shift is the increasing centrality of individual goal attainment, a pattern which is evidenced by three phases;

1. emergence of capitalism in the West and the historical dominance of nuclear families was responsible for behavioral patterns oriented to the welfare of households, not larger kin groups or the community

2. during the 19th century, an increased orientation to the welfare of children, coupled with the increased independence of young people as production was no longer centered in the household

3. shift towards fulfillment of individual wants (secular individualism)

Another important factor which L. sees rooted in history is rapid increases in real income which fuel individual aspirations, stimulates self-orientation and aversion to long term commitments. L. identifies socialization as the primary mechanism of transmission of such values and says that this accounts for seeming lagged responses. Since demographic responses to economic growth are lagged, trends continue during the first years of an economic slowdown.