John Cleland & Christopher Wilson "Demand Theories of the Fertility Transition: An Iconoclastic View" (1987)

Main point: The authors challenge the dominant "demand based" explanations for fertility transitions (declining fertility, delayed marriage). Such explanations posit that a change in the cost benefit balance of childbearing resulted in a reduced parental demand for children and lower fertility. They review numerous theoretical explanations of fertility decline and conclude by arguing for an increased recognition of the role of "ideational" rather than structural (economic) change in influencing fertility decline. They support an approach which stresses the importance of the role of diffusion of ideas (for instance about birth control) but recognize the contributions of other theories (such as the emphasis on the lagged effect of mortality decline) to explanations of fertility transitions.

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Demographic transition theory has focused economic explanations of the phenomenon of fertility within marriage

Most research ignores the role of nuptiality: timing of marriage and the rate of childbearing after marriage are influenced by different factors

Traditional societies view of children:

- source of labor

- investment for parental support in old age

- insurance against an uncertain environment

- enhance physical security of family

Modernization of societies changes the economics of childbearing so that larger numbers of children are seen as disadvantageous, so fertility decline is rational and lagged:

- shift from familial modes of production reduces the utility of child labor (transition from corporate kinship systems to extended, then nuclear families)

- mass education reduces availability of children for labor

- new forms of investment and insurance developed for families

Explanations of Marital Fertility Decline

Coale's preconditions for (European) marital fertility decline:

1. fertility is a conscious choice

2. effective techniques of fertility reduction must be known and available

3. reduced fertility must be perceived to be advantageous

I. "Classical" Transition Theory (Thompson, Davis, Notestein)

fertility declined with urbanization and the undermining of traditional values supporting high fertility

II. "Demand" Theory / Chicago School Approach / New Home Economics (Becker) (1960s)

branch of consumer choice theory, idea of (mother's) time as valuable commodity

III. Combination of economic decision-making with social and biological constraints (Easterlin)

Consider factors which influence supply of children: morality and marriage as well as demand factors

Dominance of economic factors remains

IV. Cultural and Normative context of reproduction

When mortality falls, ideal and beliefs which supported high fertility decline

V. Attempts to unite economic and sociological explanations: Caldwell's Intergenerational Wealth Flows

Pre-transitional societies have transfer of wealth from children to parents, reversal of the flow of wealth transfers is driving force behind fertility decline, reversal is fueled by cultural transmission of child-centered nuclear family

VI. Diffusion of Innovations Theory

Concerned with how new technology and forms of behavior spread in a population

Conclusions (which refute demand theories)

* Conscious exercise of birth control absent in traditional societies

* Absence does not imply children possess high economic value

* Timing of transition influenced by cultural factors (parents education, religion) not economic factors

* Speed and pervasive nature of transition suggest role of diffusion of ideas rather than micro-economic forces

* Declines in parents demand for children as indicated by fertility preferences do not precede transition

Review of Data

World Fertility Study: descriptive measurement of fertility and direct determinants: sexual exposure, birth control, post-partum infecundability

Historical data:

Family reconstitutions - link baptism, marriage, burial records in parish registers to produce maternity histories

Aggregated use of parish registry data to calculate main demographic indices (life expectancy, gross

reproduction) for England

Census and civil registration data from mid-19th century, data by regional units, not individuals

Nature of Pre-transitional Fertility

Three questions:

1. Was conscious birth control practiced in marriage?

Birth control limited to small groups, most elites

NO: Conscious exercise of birth control within marriage probably absent in its modern form

2. If control was absent, did it represent a high demand for children?

NO: Wrigley and Scholfield demographic and data from England: found fertility trends lag wage trends by a generation conclude that change in fertility resulted from a change in nuptiality: institutional setting which demanded economic independence from newly married couples, this evidence contradicts major theories of demographic transition, although children left home to work, they did not send money home but natural fertility dominated

3. Can varying levels of pre-transitional fertility be interpreted as the result of an economic system?

NO: levels of natural marital fertility bear little or no relation to objectively measured socio-economic characteristics

Other explanations of fertility transitions:

1. socioeconomic conditions: no relation between socioeconomic conditions and the onset of fertility decline. European transition occurred simultaneously on continent and in colonies, with speed

2. mortality: (part of classical transition theory) but only weak relationship at best

3. increases in fertility precede ultimate decline because modernization eroded prolonged lactation and post-natal abstinence, some evidence, not conclusive; WFS suggests that such factors which might lead to a rise on fertility are balanced by birth control

4. failure to find divergence in fertility decline between familial and non-familial economic sectors

5. education is strong than economic characteristics as explanation: parents with more education, use birth control more, education has impact on infant mortality, narrow economic view of education as competing with work of children not supported

6. cultural factors of sub-populations (for example French speaking region of Belgium had earlier fertility declines than Flemish areas) are found to be important

7. differential fertility; though declines are initially concentrated in urban areas among the more educated and wealthier, other members of population follow shortly; in addition, in homogeneous populations, decline is swift and universal, so the authors argue that explanation must be sought in changes experienced in common, not micro-economic household differences

8. swift rate of decline also suggests social or economic structure are not adequate explanations because they can't change as quickly

9. examine fertility preferences to gain insight into ideational changes: find that a decreased preference for children does not precede fertility decline