Watkins, Menken, and Bongaarts - "Demographic Foundations of Family Change"

This article is based on a simulation model that uses mortality, marriage and fertility patterns to construct family statuses, focusing on women. The authors argue that current cohorts can spend more years as parents, children, spouses, and combinations of these statuses as a result of declining mortality rates and longer lifespans. The question they want to answer is: How much of this potential has been realized? The simulation model is based on data from 1800, 1900, 1960, and 1980 in an attempt to see how families have changed over time. Their basic findings are that much of the potential has not been achieved. Women in the 1960 and 1980 cohorts did spend more years as parents and in marriage. They also spent more time as the children of aged parents. But the number of years spent as a spouse and as a parent declined between 1960 and 1980 and current cohorts spend a smaller proportion of their lives in these statuses.

Mortality reduction has been accompanied by changing fertility (fewer kids) and marriage (increasing divorces) patterns and disentangling these effects of these demographic changes is difficult. These authors have chosen the simulation model to see how families would have changed if only mortality declined and then see how much of this potential was lost presumably as a result of the changing fertility and marriage patterns.

Most of the paper is spend describing the data and methods and the specific results, which I will not go into here. Below is a paragraph that sums up the findings, located on pg. 353:

Although declines in mortality have made it possible to spend more years in every family status (parent, child, spouse, single, and postmarried) under the demographic conditions of 1980 than under those of 1800 or 1900, only some of this potential has been realized. Despite the declines in fertility and increases in divorce, the 1980 simulated cohort spent more years as children, as parents, as currently married spouses, and in conjugal family units than people in the 1800 or 1900 cohort. The 1980 cohort spent about 27 adult years with spouse and surviving children, 4 years more than 1800 cohort. If number of years spent in these family statuses is taken as a rough measure of investment in the family, clearly this investment has increased, not decreased.

These results are due to the combined effects of declines in mortality and concomitant or subsequent change in marriage and fertility on family time.

Time spent as a child with surviving parents is the status that realized most of its potential. The discrepancy between potential and actual change was insignificant. Time spent as a spouse was much lower than its potential. Differences in male and female mortality (higher for men) is the major source of discrepancy between the situations of older men and older women. And, compared to previous cohorts, people have chosen to spend a smaller proportion of their lives as spouses, parents (especially of a young child), and as a member of a conjugal family unit.

The authors provide 3 lines of speculation about the social effects of these demographic changes: 1) the alteration in potential time in each family status may itself influence demographic change, for ex., as a result of the perceived increased obligations to children. 2)mortality change may result in a shift of some more costly and burdensome family obligations to the community (healthcare, social security, etc.). 3) Some family obligations have been redefined. Finally, the authors look to the future, predicting that improved mortality will increase the number of years spent with a very aged parent, that fertility will remain low and childbearing is increasingly seen as discretionary so an increase in childless women, a "more vigorous debate on the appropriate allocation of financial support for dependent children between the family and the community" (pg. 355), and the continued redefinition and blurring of family roles.